How it works

Every FBS team has a price. Before each game the model sets an expected margin. After the game, the price moves by how far the result landed from it.

1 · Opening price

Each team opens the season at a price set by its preseason rating. An average team opens near 100, a contender near 150.

2 · Expected margin

Before every game, the model sets an expected margin: the rating gap between the two teams plus home field.

3 · The surprise

After the game, the surprise is how far the result landed from the bar. It blends two things:

• The scoreboard: actual margin vs. expected margin (capped, so running up the score only counts so much).
• Per-play efficiency: how well a team moved the ball and stopped the other side, play by play. A lucky win counts for less than a dominant one.

4 · The move

• A normal week moves a price about 3%.
• The biggest moves top out near 10%.
• Losing as the favorite costs extra. We call it MISSED GUIDANCE.
• Beating an FCS team moves a price 2% at most. Losing to one follows the normal rules, with no cap.
• A bye week = 0%..

5 · Conferences

A conference's average price is the average of its teams' prices, and its season % is the change since preseason. Multi-year conference charts use today's members, so they show how today's lineup traded back then, before realignment.

6 · Spending vs Price (separate from the price)

The price only measures results. Spending vs Price compares it with money. The budget line is the price a given football budget usually buys across FBS. Each team gets the points it trades above or below that line. VALUE = 10+ points above, OVERVALUED = 10+ points below, FAIR in between. P/E sums it up in one number: 20 is par for the budget. Below 20 means the team gets more on the field than its budget usually buys (a value). Above 20 means it gets less (overvalued). Spending is each school's football operating expenses reported to the U.S. Dept. of Education (EADA), 2024-25. It does not include NIL or revenue sharing. Schools count costs differently. The figure stays fixed until the next EADA year. Service academies don't file (NOT DISCLOSED), and teams that weren't FBS yet in 2024 aren't ranked. We never estimate. See the board

The lingo

• Ticker: a team's short name, like UK or OKST.
• Price: where a team trades right now. Higher = stronger body of work.
• Season %: change since the preseason open. It measures results against preseason expectations. To compare teams directly, use Price.
• MISSED GUIDANCE: lost as the favorite.
• Upset win: won as the underdog.
• Bye: no game that week, no move.
• Spending vs Price: points above or below what a team's football budget usually buys. VALUE / FAIR / OVERVALUED.
• P/E: the price a team's football budget usually buys, divided by its actual price, times 20. 20 = par, under 20 = cheap for what it produces, over 20 = expensive. N/D = spending not disclosed.
• Market breadth: how many teams are up vs. down since the preseason open.

The fine print

All game data comes from public sources (CollegeFootballData.com). No betting lines or odds go into the model. Entertainment only. Prices are not betting picks or investment advice, and there is nothing to buy.